My name is Gary Baxter. I've been in the oil and gas industry nearly 20 years, with 15 of those years in field operations and engineering management.
Winter operations can pose not only significant hazards to your employees, but significant lost or deferred revenue from missing out on spot pricing arbitrage. I connected my passion for weather and years of leadership experience to roll out a simple product tailored to your operating conditions and area to message leadership and key operations personnel and alert them of upcoming weather conditions. I'm calling it PetroCastWX.
We send these alerts typically 3–5 days out. Each alert includes a customizable short prep checklist and call to action. In backtesting over the past six winters, the model can pinpoint threatening weather about four days (~94 hours median lead time) before the coldest point of the incoming conditions. This allows your teams to put resources in place and prepare your staff for the upcoming threat—getting ahead of it to be more predictive than reactive.
Also available is my one-on-one coaching to help leadership get through every part of the storm: alerting, preparation, nowcast forecasting during the event, observations and reactions, coaching points for improvements, and material to prep your team and inform the Railroad Commission that you are prudent and doing the right thing.
So join me—let's work together to increase revenue, runtime, and reliability of your operations this winter!
Verify methanol/MEG tank levels, test chemical injection pumps, stage gang trucks, and lock in vendor methanol deliveries before regional shortages hit.
On satellite test pads (where AC power runs ESPs/pumping units but heat trace is non-existent), insulate gas-outlet back-pressure valves on <250 psig testers and known wellhead-to-tester freeze points; at Central Tank Batteries, verify heat trace and insulation on mechanical BPVs and FWKO/heater-treater/HP-LP dump lines dropping to 10–15 ft tanks.
Hourly RTMA 2.5km + local mesonet bias correction + MRMS freezing-precip detection + 1-on-1 coaching calls during frontal passage to keep wells flowing into peak spot gas/power prices.
Avoid post-thaw hydrate plugs with our 72h Recovery Watch, and export a timestamped alert + field-action ledger showing prudent preparedness for Texas RRC Rule 3.65 / leadership review.
Onboard 1 to 10 pads or compressor stations for our attended winter pilot. Every field below maps directly to our live engine's assets/sample_pads.csv schema. Submitting prepares a direct email to gary@petrocastwx.com, downloads your ready-to-run pad spec (CSV/JSON), and adds your pad to the console above for immediate inspection.
| Event | Basin | v2 Watch Lead | v2 Alert Lead (Onset / Trough) | Published Production Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott (Dec 2022) | Permian | 94h before onset | +70h onset / +118h trough | ~3.0 Bcf/d Permian / -16.1 Bcf/d L48 (EIA) |
| Elliott (Dec 2022) | Haynesville | 94h before onset | +46h onset / +94h trough | ~1.2 Bcf/d Haynesville (S&P) |
| Heather (Jan 2024) | Permian | 70h before onset | +22h onset / +94h trough | ~3.0 Bcf/d Permian / -14.3% W. TX (EIA) |
| Heather (Jan 2024) | Haynesville | 46h before onset | +22h onset / +94h trough | >2.0 Bcf/d Haynesville (EIA / SynMax) |
| Jan 2025 Arctic | Permian | 106h before onset | +70h onset / +118h trough | Confirmed Permian freeze-offs |
| Fern (Jan 2026) | Permian & HV | 100–112h | +70h onset / +118h trough | Confirmed Permian & Haynesville |
| Uri (Feb 2021)* | Permian | 34h before onset | -26h onset / +142h trough | *NBM warm bias Feb 5–10; alerted 6d before Feb 17 trough |
Transparency note: Backtest replays 3,740 archived NBM text bulletins (2020–2026) + IEM ASOS observations. Overall v2 median ALERT lead is +22h to onset day and +94h to trough day across 15 confirmed basin-events (14/15 alerted before trough; 1.50 false-alarm episodes/winter). Hydrate figures are Katz/Hammerschmidt screening estimates.